Global Meal Substitutes Market Size (2024 – 2030)

The Global Meal Substitutes Market reached a valuation of USD 12.19 billion and is anticipated to achieve a market size of USD 18.3 billion by the conclusion of 2030. Projections for the period spanning 2024 to 2030 indicate a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.98%.

Industry Overview

The industry foresees advancement owing to the pace of modern living and escalating requests for delectable, premium, and nourishing food options. Moreover, the demand for ready-to-consume meal replacement products is poised to escalate due to prolonged work hours and a surge in sedentary lifestyles among individuals. These food items are abundant in fats, calories, proteins, and other vital elements, yet require comparatively less preparation time. Additionally, the clean label initiative is expected to elevate consumer awareness regarding nutrition and ingredient lists, thus boosting the preference for natural and organic meal substitute options.

Consumers perceive meal replacement bars and shakes as healthier alternatives to fast food, propelling growth opportunities for market participants. Furthermore, the availability of products featuring diverse vitamin combinations is anticipated to bolster demand. The increasing popularity of vegan diets is slated to trigger innovations within the meal substitute products segment. Major producers such as Soylent are offering plant-based meal options to meet the escalating demand for vegan selections.

Meal substitutes boast convenient storage and extended shelf life. Most of these products are available in bar or ready-to-drink shake formats, rendering them convenient for on-the-go consumption. Among the most favored product variations, especially among fitness enthusiasts, is the powdered form. Numerous fitness centers retail meal replacement items to encourage their members to adopt healthier dietary habits. To expand their market presence, meal replacement product manufacturers are likely to establish dedicated online platforms as the utilization of e-commerce platforms for sales gains momentum.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Industry

The global lockdown imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic has engendered unprecedented health challenges, with consumers adapting to this lifestyle paradigm hailed as the new norm. Reduced physical activity levels have induced stress, leading to overeating and weight gain. Throughout this period, the concept of wholesome eating has garnered substantial traction, with consumers' endeavors to bolster immunity pivotal in driving the sales of meal substitutes in the market.

Market Drivers

Escalating Prevalence of Obesity and Diabetes

The worldwide surge in obesity rates, having quadrupled since 1975, signifies one of the most severe health concerns. Obesity, which was initially prevalent in industrialized nations, has now permeated low- and middle-income countries. The uptick in obesity instances has prompted many individuals to turn to meal substitution programs as a means of weight management. Obesity escalates the risks of diabetes, cardiovascular mortality, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. Long-term strategies involving meal replacements for weight management are favored over alternative therapies due to their efficacy in facilitating weight loss. Additionally, the global market is set to burgeon owing to heightened awareness regarding healthy lifestyles. The trend of embracing a nutritious diet by replacing regular meals with simple and convenient options is on an upward trajectory.

Surging Consumer Appetite in Emerging Markets for Meal Substitutes

Increasing consumer consciousness is driving a surge in expenditure on healthful foods in emerging economies. Rising obesity rates, a proliferation of sedentary lifestyles, an aging populace, and a burgeoning interest in health and nutrition are all contributing to the proliferation of meal substitutes across emerging regions. Moreover, lifestyle disorders such as cardiovascular ailments, type 2 diabetes, and osteoporosis are on the rise in nations like India, Australia, and Japan. The Asia Pacific region has witnessed rapid escalations in overweight and obesity rates. Obesity has emerged as a pressing health challenge in South America as well, with Brazil projected to have 23,223.6 thousand diabetics by 2030, up from 15,733.6 thousand in 2021.

Market Restraints

Cost Disparity with Traditional Meals

Advancements in science and technology aid in identifying foods conducive to weight management and overall well-being. The cost of meal replacements, however, presents a potential constraint to market expansion as it surpasses that of conventional meals. The enhanced nutritional content of these products necessitates additional manufacturing processes, thereby elevating their cost. Research and development expenses, coupled with customization efforts, contribute to the elevated price point of meal substitutes. Despite consumers gravitating towards meal replacements to enhance their overall health amidst burgeoning health concerns and lifestyle alterations, the premium pricing could impede market expansion.

Ambiguity Between Protein and Meal Replacement Shakes

Occasionally, there is confusion between protein shakes and meal replacement shakes. Protein beverages are formulated to enhance athletic performance and muscle growth, while meal replacement shakes are geared towards weight loss, wound recovery, and convalescence, among other applications. The latter are designed to serve as substitutes for breakfast, lunch, or dinner, whereas protein shakes are intended for consumption pre and post intense workouts. Whereas protein shakes cater solely to one's protein requirements, meal replacement shakes offer a comprehensive nutrient profile akin to a complete meal. The market faces challenges stemming from the ambiguity surrounding meal replacement drinks and protein shakes, hindering sales and impeding the expansion of the meal substitutes sector.

Global Meal Substitute Market- By Product Type

• Powder
• Ready to Drink
• Protein Bar

As of 2018, the largest market share in the meal substitute market was held by meal replacement powder. The growth in this segment is expected to be driven by the convenience of powder products for storage and the lifestyles of consumers on-the-go. Moreover, the inclusion of a complimentary glass shaker with powder packets adds to their appeal. The availability of a wide range of flavors is anticipated to attract a greater number of customers, particularly those focused on weight management and a health-conscious lifestyle. Ready-to-drink bottles are projected to experience the highest growth rate of 7.0 percent from 2019 to 2025. This surge is attributed to the increasing popularity of bottled energy drinks, thereby boosting the demand for meal replacement beverages. Factors such as attractive packaging, online marketing, and endorsements by celebrities are driving consumer preference towards ready-to-drink options. Additionally, these products are easily accessible, with clear nutritional information on the labels. Manufacturers are also ensuring compliance with federal food regulations, particularly regarding the use of flavored ingredients. Over the next eight years, these factors are expected to significantly expand the market scope for this segment.

Conversely, one of the less favored meal replacement products has been the protein bar. These items are comparatively more expensive than powdered and ready-to-drink alternatives. However, they are predicted to gain popularity as convenient on-the-go snack options due to the increasing pace of lifestyles and the willingness of consumers to invest in luxurious and convenient items.

Global Meal Substitute Market- By Distribution Channels

• Online
• Offline

The majority of meal replacement products are currently sold through offline channels, owing to the extensive offline distribution networks of multinational manufacturers. This segment is poised to maintain the largest market share throughout the forecast period, as manufacturers exert control over the placement and visibility of their products in supermarkets. Furthermore, many gym establishments offer prominent meal replacement products on-site, further bolstering offline sales.

The rise of e-commerce has provided manufacturers with an efficient avenue to reach a broader audience at reduced costs. To boost online sales, manufacturers are increasingly focusing on developing their websites and forming partnerships with major e-commerce platforms. Additionally, the burgeoning popularity of fitness blogs and vlogs has resulted in a rise in virtual word-of-mouth advertising, expected to drive online sales growth. Manufacturers are also investing in web advertisements and digital marketing strategies to expand their consumer base and encourage product purchases online. These efforts are likely to facilitate swift sales of meal replacement products through online distribution channels.

Global Meal Substitute Market- By Region

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• Latin America
• The Middle East and Africa

North America claimed the largest market share, accounting for nearly 45 percent. The United States, in particular, drove regional demand due to its significant population of health-conscious individuals and the rising prevalence of health issues such as obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol levels. While the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) does not categorize these products as meal replacements, but rather as meals for specific dietary purposes, adherence to FDA regulations and terminology is becoming increasingly familiar among consumers and producers alike. This categorization could influence market growth, prompting manufacturers to design products that meet the FDA's nutritional and quality standards.

Between 2024 and 2030, the Asia-Pacific region is forecasted to exhibit the highest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.3%. The rapid urbanization, growing population, and increased awareness of diverse nutritional needs in developing countries such as China and India are expected to fuel market growth. Additionally, the expanding e-commerce landscape in these regions is poised to enhance sales of meal replacement products. Many manufacturers are leveraging digital platforms for advertising to penetrate the market and reach previously untapped or geographically inaccessible consumers, thereby contributing to market expansion. These products are predominantly used for weight management purposes, with many gym enthusiasts and fitness instructors recommending them for effective weight loss, further boosting the regional market. Several European countries are significantly contributing to the market share due to the increasing awareness of the benefits of meal replacement diets. Manufacturers entering these markets through e-commerce channels are expected to witness sustained growth in major countries across Central and South America, the Middle East, and Africa.

Global Meal Substitute Market- By Companies

1. Abbott Laboratories
2. Amway
3. Atkins
4. Glanbiaplc
5. Herbalife Nutrition
6. Huel
7. Kellogg Co.
8. Nestle
9. NU Skin Enterprises, Inc.
10. Usana Health Sciences Inc.

NOTABLE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GLOBAL MEAL SUBSTITUTE MARKET:

Product Launch:

In 2020, Huel introduced its latest product, Huel Black Edition. This nutritious meal replacement shake boasts 33 percent more protein than Huel Powder, 50 percent fewer carbohydrates, and a naturally gluten-free recipe without artificial sweeteners.

Merger & Acquisition:

In 2021, Nestlé and KKR reached an agreement for Nestlé to acquire key brands from The Bountiful Company for USD 5.75 billion. The Bountiful Company is renowned as the world's leading pure-play nutrition and supplement company, with a highly attractive and growing global market.